Matt Carpenter has a .366 OBP with 16 home runs.
But he hasn’t come about those numbers evenly.
His April pace would have led to a full season of 372/438/651 and over 130 extra-base hits.
What it did lead to, evidently, was people thinking regression to the mean didn’t apply to the Cardinals third baseman/human being.
That 130 extra-base hit pace wouldn’t have just topped 2014’s EBH leader–guy by the name of Trout…it would’ve beaten him by a margin of forty-six.
Most people would reason that one’s stats won’t be accumulated evenly, yet overreact when they are in that very process.
Add or divide the body of work any way you like, but Carpenter’s 2015 season is on pace to finish with a .366 OBP and 25 HRs.
Here’s the full list of 2014 NL hitters who could boast the same at year’s end :
- Andrew McCutchen
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Anthony Rizzo
You know who else is maddeningly inconsistent? Steph Curry. Sure he hit 38.5% from three during the NBA finals–1% better than Larry Bird’s career 3FG%–but he didn’t shoot them well every game.
After a so-so Game 1 (2-6 33%), he was downright bad in Game Two (2-15 13%) and Game Six (3-11 27%).
Why couldn’t he always do what he did Games Three through Five, when he made 18 of his 33 3FG attempts?
What’s his deal?
(I’d argue that our lack of objectivity in small samples led to Curry’s performance in the Game Six clincher contributed to the small minded annointing of MVP to Andre Iguodala. Does that happen if Curry goes 6-11 instead?)
If you stood by the roulette table all night, there’s a heck of a chance you’d see as much red as you would black.
But until we realize that getting to 50/50 will consist of runs of one and not the other, Las Vegas will keep erecting buildings that are mortgage-free.